Deep dive
Where the Money Moves
The American migration story told through tax returns and home values: billions of dollars of income changing states, the superstar-county exodus, the rich-mover premium — and the housing-market twist where migration's winners became the places prices fall.
Every spring the IRS quietly publishes one of the best migration datasets in the world: where tax filers lived last year, where they live now, and how much income moved with them. It shows something the moving-truck counts miss — migration in America has become a financial event as much as a demographic one. This story follows the money: out of the superstar counties, into Florida and the Sun Belt, through the incomes of the people who carry it, and into the housing markets that absorbed it — with a twist at the end, because the places that won the people are now the places where prices fall.
01
The Great Income Migration
The money files a change of address
IRS returns track adjusted gross income as it crosses state lines. Florida gained $21 billion from interstate movers in the latest year, after a $39 billion haul at the 2021 peak; California lost $12 billion, down from a $29 billion outflow. The gap blew out in the pandemic and still runs at multiples of its pre-2020 pace.
What it adds
Tax returns track the money: Florida gained $21 billion of adjusted gross income from interstate movers in the latest year; California lost $12 billion. The gap blew out after 2020 and still runs at multiples of its pre-pandemic pace.
Open chart, data, and methodology ↗State totals hide where the money actually leaves from: a handful of famous counties.
02
The Superstar Exodus, in Tax Returns
The superstar exodus
New York City tax filers took $24 billion of income with them in the pandemic year alone. The bleeding has slowed to about $7 billion a year since — but New York, Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Chicago have finished in the red every single year of the record, while Miami-Dade and Phoenix sit on the receiving end.
What it adds
New York City tax filers took $24 billion of income with them in the pandemic year alone. The bleeding has slowed to $7 billion since — but New York, Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Chicago all remain in the red every year.
Open chart, data, and methodology ↗And it is not just how many households leave — it is which ones.
03
The Rich-Mover Premium
Who moves matters more than how many
Households arriving in Florida out-earn the ones leaving by about $46,000 a year — a premium that peaked near $77,000 in the 2021 wealth migration. California and New York run the trade in reverse: richer leavers, poorer arrivals, nearly every year on record.
What it adds
Households arriving in Florida out-earn the ones leaving by about $46k a year — a premium that exploded in the pandemic wealth migration. California and New York trade richer leavers for poorer arrivals nearly every year.
Open chart, data, and methodology ↗All that arriving income went looking for houses — and for a while, it paid any price.
04
The Superstar-City Housing Premium Is Deflating
The premium deflates
A San Francisco home cost 2.3 times the national average in 2000 and peaked at 4.0 times; it is 3.1 now. Austin round-tripped its entire boom — from a 1.65 peak back to 1.15, below where it started the pandemic. Miami, almost alone among the boomtowns, has kept its gains.
What it adds
A San Francisco home cost 2.3 times the national average in 2000 and peaked at 4.0; it is 3.1 now. Austin round-tripped its whole boom (peak 1.65, now 1.14), while Miami kept its pandemic gains.
Open chart, data, and methodology ↗Here is the twist: the metros that won the migration are now the places where prices fall.
05
The Sun Belt Boom Metros Have Corrected for Three Years
The boomtowns give it back
Home values across ten Sun Belt boom metros have fallen year-over-year for 21 straight months. The ten Northeast and Midwest metros they were supposedly emptying out never stopped compounding — still growing about 4 percent a year. Migration's winners became housing's losers.
What it adds
Home values in ten Sun Belt boom metros first went negative in May 2023 and have now fallen for 22 straight months. The broader census South followed in April 2025; Northeast and Midwest metros never stopped compounding.
Open chart, data, and methodology ↗The resolution of that paradox is supply — and one map shows it directly.
06
Housing's Two Americas, Mapped by Inventory
Two Americas, mapped by inventory
Across the 100 largest metros, one variable does most of the work: where for-sale inventory has recovered above pre-pandemic levels, prices are falling; where it never recovered, they are still rising. Inventory recovery alone explains about half the difference in price growth between metros.
What it adds
Where for-sale inventory is back above pre-pandemic levels, home prices are falling; where it never recovered, they are still rising. Inventory recovery explains half the difference in price growth across the 100 largest metros.
Open chart, data, and methodology ↗Chain it all together — the money, the movers, the supply — and it ends at the listing price.
07
Asking Prices Are Falling for the First Time on Record
Sellers blink first
The national median asking price has now fallen year-over-year for six straight months — the only negative stretch since the series began in 2018. Measured home values still show small gains, because sellers reprice before the indexes do. The asking price is where the story shows up first.
What it adds
The national median asking price has fallen year-over-year for 7 straight months — the only negative stretch since the series began in 2018. Measured home values still show gains; sellers reprice first.
Open chart, data, and methodology ↗What the tax data started, the housing data finishes: in America, the money moves first and the market follows.
The quick read
The deed follows the money — with a lag
Read together, the charts describe one machine. Income leaves the superstar counties richer than it arrives anywhere else; Florida and the Sun Belt collect it; housing absorbs it. But the ending is decided by supply: the boomtowns built, restored their inventory, and are giving back their price gains, while the scarce, slow-building Northeast and Midwest never stopped compounding. The migration of money turned out to be easier than the migration of housing wealth. The next IRS vintage will show whether the exodus is normalizing or merely resting — and these charts will update when it lands.
Each chart is linked to its own methodology, source list, latest observations, and downloadable chart image. Associations shown here are descriptive unless a chart explicitly states otherwise.