The Superstar Exodus, in Tax Returns
Net adjusted gross income from domestic migration for the core counties of six major metros — New York City's five boroughs combined, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Cook County, Miami-Dade, and Maricopa. The superstar coastal cores lose income to migration in nearly every year of the record, peaking near twenty-five billion dollars for New York City in the pandemic year, while Miami-Dade and Maricopa sit on the receiving end. County lines understate metro totals — a move to the suburbs counts as outflow — so this is specifically the story of the urban core.
What does it show?
New York City tax filers took $24 billion of income with them in the pandemic year alone. The bleeding has slowed to $7 billion since — but New York, Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Chicago all remain in the red every year.
Methodology
Net adjusted gross income from domestic migration for the core counties of six major metros, from IRS SOI county migration files: income on returns arriving minus income on returns leaving, in nominal dollars. New York City sums its five boroughs. County boundaries understate metro totals — movers to the suburbs count as outflow — so this measures the urban core specifically. Rebuilt when the IRS publishes a new filing-year pair.