Dror Poleg’s Data Dashboard

Asking Prices Are Falling for the First Time on Record

By Dror Poleg

This chart tracks the national median asking price and the Zillow Home Value Index, both as year-over-year growth. Asking prices turned negative in early 2026 for the first time in a series that begins in 2018, while measured home values still show small gains - sellers adjust their offers before slow-moving value indexes register the change.

Latest observation: 2026-07·Expected cadence: Monthly
Real EstatePrices
What does it show?

The national median asking price has fallen year-over-year for 7 straight months — the only negative stretch since the series began in 2018. Measured home values still show gains; sellers reprice first.

Methodology

Zillow median list price (smoothed, seasonally adjusted) and ZHVI for the United States, both as year-over-year growth over their common span from 2019-03. 'On record' means this sample: the list-price series begins in 2018. The list-minus-value gap is not a record — it reached -10.1 points in September 2021, a composition effect of the pandemic frenzy; the new fact is the outright decline in asking prices (-2.0% in July 2026 vs +1.0% for values). Asking-price growth correlates 0.83 with value growth in the same month and 0.47 with value growth six months later. Median list price is composition-sensitive: a shift toward cheaper listings lowers it without any individual home being repriced, and a listing is an offer, not a transaction. Data provided by Zillow Group; terms verified 2026-07-31.

Sources