The Sun Belt Boom Metros Have Corrected for Three Years
This chart compares average year-over-year home-value growth across ten Sun Belt metros that led the pandemic boom with ten Northeast and Midwest metros that did not. The boom basket first turned negative in 2023 and has spent most of the time since below zero, while the northern basket kept compounding; the shaded band marks the current negative run.
What does it show?
Home values in ten Sun Belt boom metros first went negative in May 2023 and have now fallen for 22 straight months. The broader census South followed in April 2025; Northeast and Midwest metros never stopped compounding.
Methodology
Unweighted mean of year-over-year ZHVI growth (all homes, smoothed, seasonally adjusted) across ten Sun Belt boom metros (Austin, San Antonio, Dallas, Houston, Tampa, Orlando, Jacksonville, Phoenix, Nashville, Atlanta) and ten Northeast/Midwest metros (Hartford, Bridgeport, Providence, Rochester, Syracuse, Chicago, Cleveland, Columbus, Philadelphia, New York), monthly from 2019. The baskets are editorial picks, so the claim was re-run on census definitions using every top-100 metro: the census South first turns negative only in April 2025 (now 16 straight negative months), while the census Northeast+Midwest never falls below +2.9% after 2023. The three-year figure therefore belongs to the boom metros specifically; the broader South followed about two years later, and the correction has not been monotonic — the boom basket briefly rebounded above zero during 2024. Data provided by Zillow Group; terms verified 2026-07-31.