Dror Poleg’s Data Dashboard

The Rich-Mover Premium

By Dror Poleg

For four big states, the average income of households moving in minus the average income of households moving out, from IRS migration files. Florida's premium — arriving households out-earning departing ones — ran around twenty thousand dollars for years, then exploded past seventy thousand in the pandemic wealth migration before settling back by half. California and New York show the mirror image: the households they lose earn more than the ones they gain, a gap that widened sharply after 2020 and compounds the tax-base effects of raw outflow.

Latest observation: 2023·Expected cadence: Annual
MigrationInequality
What does it show?

Households arriving in Florida out-earn the ones leaving by about $46k a year — a premium that exploded in the pandemic wealth migration. California and New York trade richer leavers for poorer arrivals nearly every year.

Methodology

Average adjusted gross income per tax return for households moving into each state minus the average for households moving out, from IRS SOI state migration files, domestic moves only, in nominal dollars. A positive value means the state attracts richer households than it loses. Averages divide total AGI by returns, so a few very-high-income movers can swing small states; the four states shown are large enough to be stable.

Sources