Worker Anxiety Index (W-AI)
This chart combines workers’ perceived risk of job loss with their perceived chance of failing to find another job quickly. It uses two New York Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations questions and rebases the synthetic product to April 2020; it is an analytical index, not a directly surveyed joint probability or unemployment forecast.
What does it show?
Worker anxiety is well below the COVID panic, but it has risen as workers have become less confident about finding another job quickly.
Methodology
Synthetic index calculated monthly from New York Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations mean responses: perceived probability of losing one's job in the next 12 months multiplied by one minus the perceived probability of finding a job within three months if one lost a job today. Formula: loss% × (1 − finding% / 100). The resulting series is divided by its April 2020 COVID-panic value and multiplied by 100. Higher values mean greater perceived risk of a job-loss shock followed by at least three months without re-employment. Because the source questions use different horizons—loss sometime in the next year versus a hypothetical loss today—this is a synthetic risk measure, not a survey-measured joint probability or forecast of realized unemployment. The scale is not capped: an index reading of 150 would mean modeled anxiety is 50% above the April 2020 level. Population composition and sampling variation can also move it. SCE data are used under the New York Fed's published license; the New York Fed is not responsible for this analysis.