Worker Anxiety Index (Components)
This chart shows the two survey expectations underlying the Worker Anxiety Index: perceived job-loss probability and conditional job-finding probability. It uses New York Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations data over the latest twelve months; the questions have different horizons and should not be subtracted as if they formed a single observed balance.
What does it show?
Recent worker anxiety is being driven more by worsening confidence in finding another job than by a rising perceived risk of job loss.
Methodology
Twelve-month view of the two New York Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations inputs used to construct the Worker Anxiety Index. Job-loss probability is the mean perceived probability of losing one's job in the next 12 months. Job-finding probability is the mean perceived probability of finding a job within three months if one lost a job today. The index combines them as loss% × (1 − finding% / 100), before rebasing to April 2020 = 100. The components use different questions, conditions, and horizons; do not subtract the lines or interpret their distance as a forecast error. Monthly movements may include sampling noise. SCE data are used under the New York Fed's published license; the New York Fed is not responsible for this analysis.