10-Year–2-Year Treasury Yield Spread
This chart shows the monthly difference between 10-year and 2-year U.S. Treasury yields since 1976. Readings below zero mark an inverted curve, while gray bands identify NBER-dated recessions. Inversions have often preceded recessions, but the relationship does not guarantee one or determine its timing.
The original idea: The term structure of interest rates contains information about subsequent economic growth. Read the original ↗ · Plain-language overview ↗
What does it show?
The 10-year Treasury yield is again above the 2-year yield after the recent inversion ended.
Methodology
Monthly 10-year Treasury constant-maturity yield minus the monthly 2-year Treasury constant-maturity yield (FRED T10Y2YM), beginning in June 1976. Values below zero indicate that the 2-year yield exceeded the 10-year yield. Gray bands use the monthly NBER recession indicator published through FRED (USREC). Yield-curve inversions have often preceded U.S. recessions, but the relationship does not establish that a recession will occur or predict its timing.