Total factor productivity, utilization-adjusted
This chart tracks utilization-adjusted total factor productivity growth in the U.S. business sector. It uses John Fernald’s San Francisco Fed research dataset and smooths volatile quarterly changes into trailing averages; TFP is a residual estimate, not a direct measurement of technology alone.
The original idea: A large part of measured output growth remains after accounting for growth in labor and capital inputs. Read the original ↗ · Plain-language overview ↗
What does it show?
Productivity growth remains volatile and has not yet shown a sustained AI-era acceleration.
Methodology
John Fernald's quarterly growth-accounting series for the U.S. business sector (SF Fed), annualized quarterly growth rates smoothed as trailing 20-quarter (5-year) means. The signal line is utilization-adjusted TFP (dtfp_util), which strips out cyclical swings in labor effort and the capital workweek; raw TFP (dtfp) is the gray reference. Updated by the SF Fed after each BLS Productivity and Costs release. Smoothing means turning points appear with a lag; the underlying quarterly series is far noisier.