The Supply Chain Pressure Gauge
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Global Supply Chain Pressure Index, monthly since 1997, combining global freight rates with the supply-chain components of manufacturing surveys across seven economies. The COVID container crunch pushed it past four standard deviations above normal in late 2021 — an event with no precedent in the series — and after normalizing in 2023 it has climbed back above one standard deviation in the tariff era, a reminder that pressure now comes from policy as much as from pandemics.
What does it show?
The New York Fed compresses shipping rates, delivery times, and order backlogs worldwide into one gauge. It exploded past four standard deviations in the 2021 container crunch, normalized by 2023 — and has climbed back above one in the tariff era, at 0.8 in the latest month.
Methodology
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Global Supply Chain Pressure Index, monthly since 1997, as published. The index combines global transportation costs (Baltic Dry, Harpex, air freight) with supply-chain components of manufacturing PMI surveys across seven economies, expressed in standard deviations from the historical average. Values above zero mean tighter-than-normal supply chains.