The Great Resignation Ended. EIN Applications Outran Employer Formation.
This chart follows the post-2019 paths from quits to EIN applications, applications with a high propensity to become payroll businesses, and employer businesses formed within four quarters. The Census formation line is observed through December 2022 and modeled thereafter; annual BDS establishment entry provides a separate confirmation through 2023.
Employer formations are actual through 2022-12; the line is Census-modeled from 2023-01. Annual BDS entry is shown through 2023.
What does it show?
Quits fell below their 2019 average while EIN applications remained 81% higher; high-propensity applications and projected employer formations rose much less.
Methodology
Monthly seasonally adjusted BLS JOLTS quits, Census Business Formation Statistics Business Applications (BA), High-Propensity Business Applications (HBA), and Spliced Business Formations within Four Quarters (SBF4Q) are independently indexed to their 2019 monthly averages. HBA identifies EIN applications with characteristics associated with becoming payroll businesses. SBF4Q assigns to each application month the employer businesses that form within four quarters; it uses observed payroll formations through 2022-12 and Census projections thereafter. Annual Census BDS establishment entry is indexed to its 2019 rate and plotted at midyear as an independent, slower confirmation measure. BDS counts establishment locations, while BFS formations are new employer businesses originating from EIN applications. The comparison is descriptive and does not show that quitting caused an application or business formation.