The Bottom of the Wage Ladder Pulled Ahead
This chart indexes inflation-adjusted hourly wage levels at four positions in the wage distribution to Q1 2020. It is a weighted quarterly repeated cross-section from Census Basic CPS public-use records. The lines describe positions in the distribution rather than the cumulative raises received by a fixed cohort.
These lines track positions in the wage distribution, not a fixed cohort of the same people. Changes can reflect both wage growth and changes in who is employed at each position. Cash wage and salary earnings only. The measure excludes stock grants, options, employer health insurance, retirement contributions, payroll taxes, and other benefits. For hourly-paid workers, the reported hourly rate excludes overtime, commissions, and tips. For other workers, usual weekly earnings can include those amounts when usually received.
What does it show?
Since Q1 2020, real hourly pay at the lowest-quartile midpoint has risen 11.5%, compared with 1.5% at the highest-quartile midpoint. The result combines wage movement with changes in who remained employed at each position.
Methodology
Independent calculation from Basic Current Population Survey outgoing-rotation public-use records. The sample includes employed wage and salary workers on a nonagricultural main job and excludes self-employed people, allocated earnings, top-coded earnings, and hourly pay below $2.13. Reported hourly pay is used for hourly-paid workers. For other workers, usual weekly earnings are divided by usual main-job hours, with actual hours used only when usual hours are unavailable. Cash wage and salary earnings only. The measure excludes stock grants, options, employer health insurance, retirement contributions, payroll taxes, and other benefits. For hourly-paid workers, the reported hourly rate excludes overtime, commissions, and tips. For other workers, usual weekly earnings can include those amounts when usually received. This is a repeated cross-section rather than a matched panel. Each quarterly estimate pools the available outgoing-rotation samples, applies the CPS earnings weight, and calculates the 12.5th, 37.5th, 62.5th, and 87.5th percentiles of hourly pay, representing the midpoint of each wage quartile. Nominal levels are divided by the quarterly average seasonally adjusted CPI-U and indexed directly to Q1 2020 = 100. The index is not compounded from overlapping growth rates.