The Mix Behind U.S. Output Growth Keeps Changing
Rolling ten-year log contribution of hours and output per hour to real nonfarm-business output growth. The mix of U.S. output growth shifted repeatedly across rolling ten-year windows. It shows that the relative roles of labor input and productivity are cyclical rather than fixed.
What does it show?
The mix of U.S. output growth shifted repeatedly across rolling ten-year windows.
Methodology
Use BLS nonfarm-business real output and hours indexes at the first and latest dates shared with real compensation per hour. Because output equals hours multiplied by output per hour as an accounting identity, decompose cumulative log output growth into log growth in hours and the residual log growth in output per hour. Log shares add to 100%; they are not shares of dollars or causal estimates. Real hourly compensation is retained only as context and is not subtracted as an allocation of productivity. What this isn't: The two components are signed log-growth contributions, not conventional shares; either can fall below 0% or exceed 100% when hours and productivity move in opposite directions.