Layoff Attention vs. Actual Layoffs
This chart compares a composite of Wikipedia attention to recession, layoffs, and unemployment benefits with the BLS layoffs rate. Both are standardized onto one scale and smoothed over three months; moving together does not mean that attention predicts layoffs.
What does it show?
Public attention and reported layoffs surged together in 2020; since then, attention has moved much more sharply than the layoffs rate.
Methodology
Builds a monthly public-attention composite from English Wikipedia user pageviews for Recession, Layoff, and Unemployment benefits beginning in July 2015. For each article, monthly pageviews are log-transformed and standardized over the common sample; the three standardized series are averaged and smoothed with a trailing three-month mean. The comparison series is the seasonally adjusted total-nonfarm layoffs and discharges rate from BLS JOLTS (JTS000000000000000LDR), standardized over the same months and smoothed the same way. Lead/lag correlations remain in the underlying chart contract for audit but are not displayed because they do not provide a clear predictive signal. Wikipedia pageviews measure attention, not sentiment or search intent, and can react to news unrelated to labor-market conditions. BLS data were retrieved on 2026-08-20. BLS.gov cannot vouch for data or analyses after retrieval from BLS.gov.