Consumer inflation expectations vs. reality
This chart compares consumers’ one-year-ahead inflation expectations with inflation subsequently realized over the same horizon. It combines the New York Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations with BLS CPI data and scores only completed forecasts, leaving recent expectations pending rather than treating them as misses.
What does it show?
Consumers’ one-year inflation forecasts are directionally useful but typically miss the realized rate by a meaningful margin.
Methodology
Each x-axis month is a forecast vintage, not the outcome date. The red line is the New York Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations median one-year-ahead expected inflation rate. The gray line is the percent change in the seasonally adjusted U.S. CPI (BLS CUSR0000SA0) from that month to the same month one year later. It therefore stops twelve months before the newest forecast. A realized point is blank when BLS lacks either endpoint; the October 2024 forecast cannot be scored because October 2025 CPI was unavailable during the 2025 lapse in appropriations. The displayed score is the mean absolute forecast error across completed vintages. SCE data are used under the New York Fed's published license; the New York Fed is not responsible for this analysis.