Dror Poleg’s Data Dashboard

Output growth vs. job growth

By Dror Poleg

This chart compares year-over-year U.S. real-output growth with payroll-employment growth. It uses BEA and BLS data via FRED and aligns monthly jobs data to the quarterly GDP calendar; the relationship is descriptive and does not identify how productivity, hours, or labor-force changes produced the gap.

Latest observation: 2026-04-01·Expected cadence: Periodic
EconomyWork
What does it show?

Output and employment usually move together, but the size of the gap changes as productivity and hours change.

Methodology

Real GDP (GDPC1), 4-quarter % change, vs. total nonfarm payrolls (PAYEMS), 12-month % change sampled at quarter months so both series share one time grid. Quarterly since 2000.

Sources