E-Commerce and Warehouse Jobs Rose Together. Retail Employment Did Not.
This chart compares the Census e-commerce share of retail sales with BLS warehousing and retail employment, independently indexed to 2019. The dotted line is a sales share and the solid lines are employment; the comparison is descriptive because warehouses also serve wholesale and logistics activity.
The dotted line is a sales share; the two solid lines are employment. Warehouses also serve wholesale and logistics, and retail includes categories with little online substitution.
What does it show?
The rise of online retail coincided with a much larger warehousing workforce, while retail-trade employment ended near its 2019 level. The aggregates do not prove that e-commerce caused the employment shift.
Methodology
The Census seasonally adjusted e-commerce share of retail sales (ECOMPCTSA) is matched by quarter to three-month averages of BLS seasonally adjusted warehousing and storage employment (CES4349300001) and retail-trade employment (USTRADE). Each series is independently indexed to its 2019 average. This is a structural comparison, not a decomposition: warehouse jobs also serve wholesale and logistics activity, while retail employment includes many categories with little online substitution.