Dror Poleg’s Data Dashboard

The Long Cooling Cycle

By Dror Poleg

This chart shows the twelve-month trailing average of shipments for ventilation, heating, air-conditioning and commercial refrigeration equipment. Smoothing makes the structural cycle easier to read, but the broad industry category includes residential, commercial and industrial demand beyond data centers.

Latest observation: 2026-06·Expected cadence: Monthly
AIBusinessEnergy
What does it show?

The smoothed shipments series turns noisy monthly releases into a clearer view of the long cooling-equipment expansion.

Methodology

Twelve-month trailing average of seasonally adjusted shipments for ventilation, heating, air-conditioning and commercial refrigeration equipment (NAICS 3334). The average reduces preliminary monthly noise but does not isolate data-center customers.

Sources