Since October 7: Suez, Hormuz, and the Cape
The maritime consequences of the war that began on October 7, 2023, told through three routes on one axis. The Red Sea crisis arrives first: Suez transits sag within weeks as Houthi attacks spread, while Cape of Good Hope traffic rises to mirror them almost ship for ship. Hormuz sails on unbothered for two years — until 2026, when the conflict reaches the Gulf and the strait that carries a fifth of the world's oil drops to almost nothing. Suez and the Cape are substitutes, so their lines trade places; Hormuz has no substitute, which is why its collapse shows up in oil prices instead.
What does it show?
Each route against its own pre-war traffic: Suez runs at 56% of its October 2023 level and the Cape of Good Hope at 164% as the detour endures — while Hormuz, steady for two years, collapsed in 2026 to 2% at the low, now at 5%.
Methodology
Daily ship transits through the Strait of Hormuz and the Suez Canal and around the Cape of Good Hope, from IMF PortWatch AIS-derived data. Each route's 14-day trailing average is indexed to its own average over the 90 days before October 7, 2023, so routes of different absolute scale share one axis and every line starts near 100. Suez and the Cape are substitute routes and mirror each other; Hormuz has no maritime substitute, so its 2026 collapse shows up in oil prices rather than a parallel route. AIS counts can understate movements where vessels run dark.