China CAT vs. reported GDP cycle
This chart compares the San Francisco Fed’s China Cyclical Activity Tracker with its transformed reported-GDP series. Both are normalized deviations from their own trends rather than absolute growth rates; China CAT is independently constructed but includes several Chinese official inputs.
What does it show?
Both independent activity and reported GDP measures suggest China is operating below its recent trend.
Methodology
Official SF Fed China CAT chart data. Both lines are detrended year-over-year growth rates normalized by the source to mean zero and unit standard deviation, so they compare cyclical deviations from each series' own trend rather than China's absolute GDP growth rate. China CAT is the first principal component of eight non-GDP indicators: consumer sentiment, electricity production, exports, fixed asset investment, new floor space constructed, industrial production, rail freight shipments, and retail sales. It is independently constructed by SF Fed researchers but includes several Chinese official inputs; the reported-GDP line is transformed Chinese GDP, not an independently observed series.