Dror Poleg’s Data Dashboard
The Economics Canon · The Buffett Indicator

Corporate equities vs. GDP

By Dror Poleg

This chart compares the market value of U.S. nonfinancial corporate equities with nominal GDP. It uses Federal Reserve and BEA data via FRED; the ratio contrasts an asset valuation with an annual economic flow and is not a timing rule or the discontinued Wilshire-based version of the Buffett Indicator.

The original idea: The value of the stock market relative to national output is a broad gauge of aggregate valuation. Read the original ↗ · Plain-language overview ↗

Latest observation: 2026-01-01·Expected cadence: Periodic
FinanceEconomy
What does it show?

The market value of U.S. corporate equities remains exceptionally high relative to economic output.

Methodology

Quarterly market value of nonfinancial corporate equities outstanding (NCBEILQ027S, millions of dollars) divided by quarterly nominal GDP (GDP, billions of dollars at a seasonally adjusted annual rate), both via FRED. Equity values are converted to billions before division and the result is multiplied by 100. This is a valuation-to-flow ratio, not the Wilshire 5000 indicator.

Sources