Dror Poleg’s Data Dashboard

Business AI adoption accelerated before the survey changed

By Dror Poleg

This chart tests whether business AI adoption accelerated before the Census survey question changed. It uses a data-selected piecewise trend on the consistently worded BTOS series, making the breakpoint exploratory rather than a confirmed structural change.

Latest observation: 2025-10-05·Expected cadence: Monthly
AIBusiness
What does it show?

Under the original survey wording, the fitted adoption trend steepened from 1.2 to 4.4 percentage points per year around 2024-08-25.

Methodology

Uses only the consistently worded BTOS national series asking whether employer businesses used AI in producing goods or services. A continuous two-segment linear model searches eligible breakpoints with at least ten observations on either side and selects the lowest Bayesian Information Criterion. This is an exploratory descriptive breakpoint, not proof of a structural change; serial correlation and repeated breakpoint search make ordinary regression significance tests inappropriate.

Sources