The Beveridge curve remains outward-shifted
This chart compares job openings since 2023 with the relationship between job openings and unemployment during the 2010s. The recent gap is descriptive and does not identify why matching conditions changed.
What does it show?
Since 2023, the job-openings rate has averaged about 0.5 percentage points above its 2010s relationship with unemployment.
Methodology
Fits a quadratic relationship between the monthly total-nonfarm job-openings rate and the U-3 unemployment rate from January 2010 through December 2019, then compares monthly observations from January 2023 onward with that benchmark. The reported shift is the average vertical residual of the recent observations. The exercise is descriptive: it does not identify matching efficiency, labor shortages, worker preferences, sector mix, or any other cause of the shift.